How to use the trade journal expectancy analyzer
- Paste your trade results in order, as plain numbers separated by commas, spaces or new lines. Wins are positive and losses are negative.
- Add a unit symbol, such as $, in the advanced section if you want it shown before amounts.
- Read the headline for expectancy per trade, then the table for win rate, averages, payoff ratio, profit factor, streaks and drawdown.
- Copy the table or download the CSV for your records.
Formula
expectancy = total result / number of trades = win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss
profit factor = gross profit / gross loss
payoff ratio = average win / average loss
drawdown = highest running total so far - current running total; the largest one is reported
Break-even trades count as neither wins nor losses, so win rate plus loss rate can be below 100 percent. The running total starts at zero before the first trade.
Ten trades
Take the results 120, -80, 200, -80, -80, 150, 90, -80, 300 and -60. The five wins add up to 860 and the five losses to 380, so the total is 480 and the expectancy is 48 per trade. The win rate is 50%, the average win is 172, the average loss is 76, and the payoff ratio is 2.26.
The profit factor is 860 / 380 = 2.26. The running total peaks at 240 after trade 3 and falls to 80 after trade 5, a drawdown of 160. The longest losing streak is 2 trades, and so is the longest winning streak.
What each measure shows
Expectancy is the average result per trade and combines how often you win with how large wins and losses are. A low win rate can still give a positive expectancy when wins are large, and a high win rate can hide a negative one when losses are larger.
Profit factor compares everything won with everything lost. Drawdown shows how deep the worst fall was from a previous high, and streaks show how long runs of wins or losses lasted in this list.
Limits of a list of past results
These numbers describe the trades you entered and nothing else. A short list is noisy, and one large trade can change every figure. They ignore costs you did not include, the size of your account and how your trades relate to one another. They say nothing about future results.
To size a position from risk see the Position Size Calculator, and to simulate random outcomes for a longer plan try the Retirement Monte Carlo Simulator.
Assumptions and limits
- Each number is one trade’s result in the same currency and after any costs you want to include.
- Up to 2,000 results are read. Numbers can include a dollar sign and commas.
- Drawdown is measured in amount from the running total, not in percent of an account.
- This is arithmetic on your numbers and is not investment advice.
- Your results stay in this browser.
Frequently asked questions
What does a profit factor above 1 mean?
It means the winning trades added up to more than the losing trades, so the total result is positive. Exactly 1 means the wins and losses cancel, and below 1 means a net loss.
Why is there no profit factor for my list?
With no losing trades the gross loss is zero and the ratio has no value, so the page says there were no losing trades instead of printing a number.
How is a drawdown different from a loss?
A loss belongs to one trade. A drawdown is the fall in the running total from its highest point, which can span several trades and also includes wins that were smaller than the loss before them.
Can I include fees?
Yes. Enter each result after fees, or subtract fees from each number before pasting. The page uses the numbers exactly as you give them.